World Cup Fever: Goals, Glory and… a Gamble?
Commentary
The world is currently glued to the television to witness the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup. The tournament, which is held once every four years is being jointly hosted by the United States (US), Canada and Mexico, and the 2026 edition started off with 48 participating countries, an expansion from the 32 countries since 1998. The hype of the tournament and the global reach make the FIFA World Cup the largest single-sport mega sporting event bringing with it significant economic benefits for the host nations. Despite these opportunities, host nations must also be mindful of overstating projected benefits, including the significant costs that are usually incurred as a result. This is particularly important for countries that already are challenged by financial constraints, especially as the event is happening alongside significant economic and geopolitical uncertainties amid the backdrop of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
2026 – World Cup with a difference
The 2026 World Cup tournament comes with a different economic profile, given the changes in the structure relative to previous tournaments. There are three host nations and 16 more teams than previous tournaments since 1998. This means that a total of 104 games will be played, including 72 group stage matches and 32 matches in the subsequent knockout stages, including an inaugural ‘Round of 32’. These games will be played over 39 days across 16 cities in three different countries in North America, including US cities of Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco: Mexican cities of Guadalajara, Mexico City and Monterrey and Canada’s Toronto and Vancouver. This complicates logistics and may come with increased costs, but with the potential for greater benefits spread across these different cities.
More Than Football
Analyses conducted and published by FIFA in March 2026 highlighted that the World Cup can generate USD80.1 billion in gross output globally. The total expected attendance was estimated at 6.5 million people, with a total event-related expenditure of USD13.9 billion. US share of expenditure accounts for USD11.1 billion given that 11 out of the 16 host cities are within the US. According to FIFA’s analysis, US sectors that are likely to benefit are Accommodation and Food (USD2.4 billion), Real Estate (USD1.95 billion) and Wholesale and Retail (USD1.5 billion).
Further, from an employment standpoint, The FIFA World Cup 2026 is projected to create 823,474 FTE globally. According to the FIFA study, only around 22% of these jobs will be in the US, primarily due to the structural features of the US labour market where employment is largely concentrated in highly skilled and high-wage workers.
The tourism industry stands out among the top sectors to benefit from hosting the World Cup. The influx of visitors will redound to a significant boost to economic activity to the host countries and cities in particular – specifically related to increased demand for hotels, restaurants, transportation, retail services as well as the entertainment industry. Under the following assumptions: expected attendance of 6.5 million people, total stadium attendance at 90% capacity, 55% of which will be foreign tourists and guests, each tourist attends an average of two matches, the FIFA analysis highlights that total tourism expenditure will reach roughly USD8 billion, around 85% of which will represent foreign tourism exports and the remaining domestic consumption.
With the group stage finished, FIFA has reported that 4.6 million people attended the matches, with stadium capacity running at around 99.7%, with an average of 64,508 persons per match. This surpasses the previous attendance record of 3.5 million which was set at the 1994 FIFA World Cup held in the US. Further, on 25 June, FIFA recorded its higher ever single-day tournament attendance of 426,834 spectators. Interestingly, the most requested matches across all fixtures were Portugal/ Colombia, the World Cup Final match and the Mexico/ Korea Republic matches, with the top countries’ purchases coming from the US, Canada, Mexico, England, Germany, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Australia and France.
The World Cup is also one of the most watched sporting events in the world. During the last tournament hosted by Qatar in 2022, the final match between Argentina and France drew a massive 1.5 billion viewers worldwide and engaged around five billion people throughout the tournament. The estimates for this year’s tournament show that over six billion people are expected to engage with the World Cup 2026 – that is approximately 75% of the world’s population. Sponsorship revenue to FIFA is also expected to exceed USD2.8 billion, compared to an estimated USD1.1 billion in 2022. Broadcasting rights are also expected to reach an historic high of USD4.3 billion, a 26% jump relative to the 2022 World Cup tournament. FIFA has struck sponsorship deals with around 16 global partners such as Adidas, Coca-Cola and Aramco.
The benefits of hosting the World Cup so far are evident in the data. In the US, consumer spending has increased in the host cities, according to Bank of America’s consumer spending analysis. The analysis examined card-based purchases in the 16 host US cities and found that overall spending rose by 6.3% relative to the same period of last year. A further breakdown on the data shows that consumer spending by non-local visitors is up by a significant 16.7% year on year, suggesting that tourists are generally driving the uptick, particularly in cities like New York, Los Angeles, Dallas and Kansas City. This provides some evidence that there is at least an immediate boost in economic/ consumer activity among the hosts.
When the Final Whistle Blows…
The last time the US hosted the FIFA World Cup was in 1994 and while there is a general view that it provided benefits to the US economy, a study done by Baade and Matheson indicated that the host cities experienced cumulative losses of USD5.5 billion – USD9.3 billion as opposed to the ex ante estimates of USD4 billion gain which was initially anticipated.
In 2022, Qatar hosted the World Cup and invested heavily in a large-scale program which ran for roughly a decade in the run-up to the event. The cost was estimated at around USD200 billion – USD300 billion. The costs associated with building stadiums were estimated at around USD6.5 billion – a small fraction of the total. For Qatar, sport tourism was a strategic avenue for economic diversification under its second National Development Strategy which ran up to 2022. Tourism spending by visitors to Qatar and World Cup-related broadcasting revenue were estimated at USD2.3 – USD4.1 billion (by the International Monetary Fund’s <IMF> estimates, around 0.7% – 1% of Qatar’s 2022 GDP).
This is comparative to previous growth contributions associated with hosting the World Cup. According to the IMF, ‘near-term contributions to Qatar’s economy were comparable to cross-country experiences, or up to 1% of GDP, with positive regional spillovers. Long-term contributions for Qatar from the decade-long public investment program in the run up to the event were significant, accounting for much of the non-hydrocarbon output growth during the period’.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s hosting of the 2010 World Cup was a bit more controversial. The country spent approximately USD3.9 billion but it came at a time of socioeconomic challenges domestically, which marred World Cup preparations with several protests reported in the run-up of the event. Studies suggest that the benefits to the South African economy were overstated – Peeters et al. (2014) found that tourist arrivals fell short of pre-event predictions. Despite this, hosting the tournament in 2010 left a positive legacy, in terms of major infrastructural upgrades including airports and roads, which authorities have claimed helped to boost tourism in the subsequent years. From a macroeconomic perspective, South Africa’s economic growth moved from a contraction of -1.5% in 2009, to growth of 2.9% in 2010 and 3.1% in 2011.
Is World Cup 2026 A Game Changer?
As we are now into the knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament, does the available data thus far suggest that this edition has the potential to be transformative to the host countries and cities? Clouding the 39-day football spectacle, is the ongoing uncertainties in the global economic space, with growing concerns of an economic slowdown, and rising inflationary expectations, caused largely by the Middle East crisis. Oil prices, though lower than their 2026 highs, have pushed up energy prices for many countries as cost-of-living rise and real wage growth moderates. The US economy expanded by a strong 2.6% during the first quarter of 2026, but inflation has surged past 4% up to May, while growth in Canada’s economy has been relatively weaker for 2026, averaging just 0.70% for the first four months. Mexico’s economy, meanwhile, recorded marginal growth of 0.24% during the first quarter of the year, weakening from growth of 1.7% for 2025.
FIFA World Cup 2026 has so far broken several notable records – Lionel Messi has found the back of the net in eight consecutive FIFA World Cup final tournament matches and is now the all-time leading goal scorer in the tournament, with 20 goals (on his heels is Kylian Mbappé with 19); Messi is also currently in a three-way tie with Mbappé and Erling Haaland in the race for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot with seven goals each so far; Cristiano Ronaldo became Portugal’s all-time top scorer in World Cup history and Harry Kane is now England’s all-time top scorer also in this format. Apart from these incredible personal feats by some of the game’s greatest icons, World Cup attendance, global reach, viewership, sponsorships and advertising have also smashed previous records. Will the record-breaking figures surrounding World Cup 2026 provide a major economic boost for host cities and nations, delivering on lofty economic promises, or will the surge in activity prove fleeting, limited to short-lived, concentrated gains that barely move the broader macroeconomic needle? As the tournament enters its final stages and the last two teams battle for glory, the roar of the crowds will fade but the true economic legacy of the 2026 World Cup will echo long after the final whistle.
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